Metro playoff scenarios (1 game left)
October 20, 2008
Well, the dust has settled. The situation is pretty clear. The win over Columbus was beyond huge, and Metro still controls their destiny. If they beat Chicago on Thursday, they will make the playoffs. Even if they don't, there are still a number of ways of them to make it. So, here's the full list of scenarios.
If Metro beat Chicago, they make the playoffs
If Metro tie Chicago, they make the playoffs IF
Kansas City loses to New England OR
DC ties or loses to Columbus, or wins by less than four goals
If Metro loses to Chicago, they make the playoffs IF
DC ties or loses to Columbus
How, some further clarification. In the West, Colorado can in theory still catch Metro. They can only do that with a victory and a Metro loss/tie, but the Rapids play Salt Lake in their finale. If they do win that game, they will jump over RSL and into the third seed in the West. RSL will fall into the wild card spot, and lose out to Metro on either points (if Metro ties) or the head-to-head tiebreaker (if Metro loses). So the West is completely irrelevant at this point.
The three-way tie on 40 points is possible, but does not affect Metro. That will occur if Kansas City and Metro tie their games, and DC wins theirs. The Wiz would then win the three-team tiebreaker as the team with the best points-per-game in games involving the three teams. The tiebreaker would then remove KC, and deal with Metro and DC alone, with Metro winning on goal difference, unless DC wins by four. So we will revert to the "If Metro tie" scenario as described above.
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